Oligo-Globalismus

Ich weiß, es klingt komisch. Ich sag’s trotzdem:

Was, wenn Donald Trump gar nicht einfach nur dumm rumproletet, sich und seinen Clan bereichert und agiert wie ein 4jähriger  im Körper eines 70jährigen. Was, wenn Donald Trump ein Konzept hat? Einen Plan, eine Vision, einen roten Faden oder so etwas?

Und das auch noch in der Weltpolitik?!

Ich hab’s mal aufgeschrieben, wie dieser Plan aussehen könnte, wenn es ihn tatsächlich geben sollte. In 35 Tweets, die ich hier unten am Stück und ordentlich durchnummeriert anhänge – wenn auch unordentlich auf Englisch.

In Deutsch erstmal nur soviel: Es handelt sich um eine Weltordnung, die nicht auf multilateralen Institutionen und von möglichst vielen Staaten unterzeichneten Abkommen basiert – nix UNO, nix NATO, nix Pariser Abkommen. Stattdessen beruht sie auf Deals, bilateralen Vereinbarungen, die zwischen den paar wirklich großen Kerlen per Handschlag getroffen werden. Fünf, sechs oder sieben von ihnen teilen sich die Welt in Einflusssphären auf, und jeder ist dafür verantwortlich, dass die ungezogenen Kids in seinem Hinterhof nicht zu sehr den Burgfrieden stören.

Eine solche Weltordnung, ich nenne sie Oligo-Globalismus, wäre für einen Trump deutlich handhabbarer als die aktuelle Ordnung. Ob sie besser oder schlechter funktionieren würde? Kommt ganz drauf an – wie sie umgesetzt wird, und welche Rolle man darin spielt.

 

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Oligo-Globalism, or: Donald Trump’s Grand Design of a deal-based World Order explained in 35 tweets. 1/

Trump hates multilateralism and diplomacy, and he loves the deal. How great would it be to have a deal-based world order!? 2/

A world with some 200 nations acting as sovereigns is too complex to be efficiently steered (not only for him). You can’t deal with it. 3/

Same for EU with some 20 selfish and complacent nations. Whose hand should you shake if you wanna deal with Europe? 4/

So what looks like an erratic foreign/global policy of Trump might just as well be an attempt to build up a new world order – deal based. 5/

A deal-based world order would rely on a handful of top-acts, each able to make a handshake deal for a significant part of the world. 6/

I’d call it Oligo-Globalism, and up to yesterday there were 5 nominees as top-acts: 7/

Oligarch No. 1: The USA, obviously, being the last remaining superpower of the 20th century. 8/

Oligarch No. 2: China, headcount billionaire and economically strong. 9/

Oligarch No. 3: India, headcount billionaire and economically rising. 10/

Oligarch No. 4: Russia, high in nuclear weapons and natural resources, low in economical and demographical dynamics. 11/

Oligarch No. 5: The EU, strong in economy and morality, weak in vision and military. 12/

The remaining blank spots on the map (except two) could be seen as influence sphere of one of the top acts: 13/

a) the Americas as backyard of the USA. 14/

b) Oceania as Chinese sphere – with or without Australia. 15/

c) South East Asia as mixed zone between India and China, as it has always been. 16/

d) The parts of Central Asia that belonged to Soviet Union as leaning to Russia – leaving a lot of question marks for European parts. 17/

e) Northern Africa as oriented towards Europe – the southern border of Europe being not the Mediterranean Sea, but the Sahara desert. 18/

The two remaining regions not fitting in the oligo-global world view were up to yesterday: 19/

f) Sub-Saharan Africa: great future potential, but little leverage today. Future role depends on further development of the region. 20/

g) Middle East: the political powder keg par excellence. Fits in no way to one of the big 5 influence spheres, but 21/

can’t be simply ignored by the oligo-globalists, as ME players know and use every thinkable way to attract international attention. 22/

Trump’s trip to ME and G-7 should put missing pieces in the oligo-globalist jigsaw puzzle. With two of them he seems to have succeeded: 23/

  1. The European Union begins to understand that it has to act as one entity, not as a cacophony of 28 voices. Danke, Merkel! 24/
  2. With today’s ostracization of #Qatar in the Middle East a kind of Sunni alliance against terror and against Iran seems to emerge. 25/

Subroto Roy called it USA = United Sunni Alliance, led by Turkey (most modern), Saudi Arabia (most money) and Pakistan (most nuclear weapons). 26/

A Sunni Alliance like this could become the 6th top act in the oligo-global world. 27/

(In this context, pulling out of Paris is less about jobs or climate change, and more about ending a multilateral world order.) 28/

Who are the odd men out in this deal-based world order? I see five, with different options: 29/

a) Sub-Saharan Africa: Grow, grow, grow, and within some years you might become top act Nr. 7. 30/

b) Australia: Torn between Anglo-Saxons (home base) and China (market). Might try to keep distance to everyone – like Switzerland. 31/

c) UK: Chose exactly the wrong moment to divorce from Europe. Still has time to re-think Brexit. 32/

d) Iran: Chosen as global loser, even after a regime change. Options to tend to India or Sunnis look dire – Russia might be lesser evil. 33/

e) Israel: Sunnis must accept Israel as sovereign country, or won’t become top act. Israel must accept that it has to do a deal asap. 34/

A grand design of a deal-based world order like this is at least as consistent with Trump’s actions as the „dumb manbaby“ narrative. 35/35

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